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With the World Series between my hometown Philadelphia Phillies and the Tampa Bay Rays happening so close to the Presidential election, I can help but confabulate them in my mind. Philadelphia hasn’t won a professional sports championship since 1983. Each of the four major sports teams (Flyers, Sixers, Phillies and Eagles) have made it to the finals, but none has won it all since the ’83 Sixers with Moses Malone and Dr. J.

Pennsylvania has also not gone to a Republican Presidential candidate for the last four elections. This time around, it will be five in a row for the Democrats. Obama will take Pennsylvania. To win PA, you have to win Philadelphia and Pittsburgh. Obama will win both big cities (Philadelphia and Allegheny counties) by a huge margin, so large that it won’t matter much what happens in the rest of the state (OK, add the densely populated bobo suburbs and it won’t matter that McCain wins the 55 rural counties in PA)

Will the Phillies also continue the pattern of losing in the championship? I like their chances of winning for a lot of reasons (the exact opposite reasons I cited in my criticism of the team when they were slumping earlier in the season). I keep hearing commentators and sports writers say “Jimmy Rollins sets the table.” I hate that metaphor.  The truth is Jimmy Rollins sets the agenda; he sets the tone. He is literally the leader of this team. He bats first. When he scores, they usually win. Whether he hits a lead-off home run (as he did in the elimination playoff games against the Brewers and the Dodgers) or walks or gets a hit, when he’s on base the Phillies chances of winning are better than they are with him in the dugout. Rollins may write the plan for success, but it’s Ryan Howard who executes it. Rollins may be the President of this company, but Howard is the Chairman and CEO. How does a player lead the league in strikeouts and errors for his position and also lead the league in home runs and RBI? He’s larger than life. He’ll need to drive in runs for the Phillies to win. Shane Victorino has surprisingly carried the load in RBI with 11 thus far in the postseason. Toward the end of the Dodgers series, Howard was getting a lot of hits–singles and doubles. The Phillies may hit a few long balls, but everyone knows that to win the World Series you have to have great pitching and you have to manufacture runs. If the top of the order gets on base and moves runners into scoring position, singles and doubles by Howard will get runs in and the Phillies will win–that is, if their pitching holds up.

The Phillies pitching has been good throughout the playoffs with the exception of Jamie Moyer, who lost twice. However, Cole Hamels and Brett Myers have had plenty of bad games this year. If they can hold the Rays to three runs or less, I like the Phillies chances. If they have an off day and give up six or seven runs, I’ll be worried. The Phillies have the bats to win games 12-10, but you can’t depend on out-slugging the other team when your pitchers are throwing slow-motion pomegranates right down the middle of the plate. That’s like being one of those basketball teams that wins by hitting 60% of their 3-pointers. The problem is no team can do that four times in a seven-game series.  The Phillies aren’t going to score double-digit runs in four of these games. They’ll need to win a few games 2-1 or 3-2. Their pitching will need to shut down the Rays. They’ll need to play small-ball and use their speed to steal bases and capitalize on sacrifices.

The World Series is going to be close. Obama might as well cheer for the Rays. He’s going to have a harder time winning Florida than Pennsylvania.